SAGE Weston Seminar Series_10/13/2016 - Notaro

Climate Change Projections and Implications for the Great Lakes Region The Laurentian Great Lakes Basin has been a regional hotspot of climate change, with rising air and lake temperatures, frequent heavy precipitation events, declining lake ice cover, enhanced lake-effect snowfall, and reduced cloud cover. To protect natural resources of the Basin, and to guide vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts, reliable estimates of the range of future regional climate projections are needed; these must include the significant moderating effect of the Great Lakes on regional climate. Here, results are presented on application of dynamic downscaling from the global to the regional level through a high-resolution climate model, interactively coupled to a lake model, with focus on projected changes in lake temperature and ice cover, lake-effect snow, winter severity, and regional hydrology. Michael Notaro Associate Director, Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin Madison